McCormick & 23 Sleepers for BYE WEEK HELL

by James Koh | Dec 6, 2024 | Featured, Free

It’s bye week HELL (part II) and with many of you fighting for your playoff lives I had to dig deep into my bag for this list. With six teams on a bye, I still got around to digging up 10 running backs and 23 total players that I think hopefully can help those of you in desperate need.

Some of these players, especially the running backs, will be dependent on injuries but I’m trying to help out managers of all league sizes. If you find this information on this free preview helpful, consider supporting my work by either subscribing to the site (your subscription is good for a full calendar year) or by subscribing to my podcast via Apple Podcast, through Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Onto the sleepers!

QUARTERBACKS

Cooper Rush vs CIN

As far as streamers go, Rush isn’t bad. Over his last 3 games Rush has a 350-yard game against a solid HOU defense and a 247-yard, 2 TD game against WAS.
This week he’s taking on a CIN defense that has potentially thrown in the towel on 2024. They’ve given up 24+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 5 QB’s they’ve faced.

Aidan O’Connell vs TB

AOC is coming off a shockingly good 340-yard, 2-TD performance and he’s taking on a Tampa team that has been getting gashed through the air. Five of their past six quarterbacks have posted an INSANE 23 or more fantasy points against them.

Billy Jeans aka Will Levis vs JAX

By hook or by crook Levis has gotten the job done since returning from injury. He’s scored exactly two touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games played. And while it hasn’t been pretty, he’s slinging it. If Jameis Winston is the Peyton Manning of Blake Bortles’, Levis is like the Daniel Jones of Jay Cutlers.
The Jags have been horrific defensively all season long, having given up the most pass yards and the 3rd most touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Adam Thielen vs PHI

The Eagles have been much tougher versus outside receivers meanwhile they’re softer vs the slot. PHI has allowed the 11th most touchdowns to inside receivers.
Coming off a strong 10 target game (8 rec, 99 yards, TD), Thielen and Bryce Young have built a chemistry going back to last year.
Jalen Coker is now being listed as doubtful meaning Thielen will definitely stay in the slot and away from Philly’s outside CB’s.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs JAX

This run by NWI is absolutely bonkers. After scoring another two touchdowns this past week, he’s now got 8 touchdowns over his last 8 games. His 8 scores is tied for the 4th most in the NFL. Insane stuff.
I usually hate to chase but the matchup is pristine. Jacksonville has allowed the 2nd most fppg to outside receivers.
Plus I also don’t hate the volume. There’s obviously a dearth of pass catches in Tennessee and NWI has seen 5 or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games. It’s not world beating stuff but it’s a respectable volume level in a plus-plus matchup.

Sterling Shepard vs LV

Shepard has moved around the formation but last week he played about 70% of his snaps lined up inside with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan as the primary outside guys.
The Raiders have given up the 2nd most TD and the 7th most fppg to inside receivers on the season.

MVS vs NYG

The Giants have given up the 8th most fppg on deep passes this year. They rank dead last in both completion percentage and yards/tar when a pass catcher is targeted 20+ air yards downfield.
Speaking of comp%, they currently allow an insane 69.2% comp rate on deep passes, the next highest is JAX at 52.3% with league average at 34.8%. The Giants are essentially DOUBLE league average in that stat. It’s actually impressive how bad the Giants are at defending deep passes.

Darnell Mooney vs MIN

Moons over My Hammy has been held in check the last two weeks but that was against two tough defenses in the Broncos and Chargers. The Vikings meanwhile are a gambling style defense that makes plays but gives them up as well. They’ve allowed the most fppg to wide receivers this year.
Prior to his two game skid, Mooney had posted three straight strong games of 18.6, 19.8 and 14.6 ppr points respectively.
I’m obviously worried about Kirk Cousins but let’s see if the old dog has one more revenge game in him against his former MIN squad.

Brandin Cooks vs CIN

This could also be Jalen Tolbert but Cooks saw more targets than Tolbert last week (7 vs 4) and ran a similar number of routes.
The matchup is one of the best on the board; CIN has given up the 6th most yards to outside receivers this year and the 5th most fantasy points.
The Bengals have allowed 15+ ppr points to a starting outside receiver in 5 of their last 6 games.

DEEP SLEEPER Tre Tucker vs TB

Tucker is coming off of back-to-back productive games (15.2 and 13.9 ppr points). I mean sure his Week 13 game production came essentially on one pass (58 yard TD) but again, the Bucs have been gashed all year long by outside receivers. They’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions and the 3rd most touchdowns to outside receivers.
And remember DJ Turner, who had been seeing significant action for the Raiders in recent weeks, was placed on IR freeing up more targets.

DEEP SLEEPER Jalen Nailor vs ATL

The Falcons are getting steam rolled by receivers in the slot having allowed the 3rd most receptions and the 5th most fantasy points per game to the inside. Three of the last four primary slot receivers have scored 11+ ppr points vs ATL.

RUNNING BACKS

Isaac Guerendo vs CHI

This is such an obvious one I thought about not including it but let’s run down some of the numbers. The Bears allow 4.89 ypc (5th worst) and allow the 4th highest explosive run rate. A team that gives up a lot of big plays on the ground to a 220 pound back with 4.33 speed is an enticing recipe. You add in the fact that Shanny can’t help but feed just one back at a time and you’ve got yourself a potential top back this week.
I have him ranked as a top 15 RB but he’s got potential to be a top 5 play this week. Rankings here.

DEEP SLEEPER Patrick Taylor vs CHI

Isaac Guerendo is obviously the next man up but let’s not forget that he has a long history of hamstring injuries going back throughout his college career, the same injury that kept him out of most of training camp.
I know the team added the uber-athletic Israel Abanikanda but he’s been with the team for like 17 minutes, let’s chill. He could be featured in a few weeks but if we’re just playing for this week, Taylor is most likely the direct backup to IG.
Taylor is NOT some little jitterbug back. He’s 6-2, 217 pounds and ran a 4.57 at the combine back in 2020. Not the fastest time but plenty fast given his size.
If Taylor finds his way onto the football field it’s a good matchup. The Bears have struggled to stop the run, the 4.89 ypc allowed to opposing RB’s ranks as 5th worst.

Devin Singletary vs NO

We obviously love Tryone Tracy but don’t forget about the crafty veteran either. Last week even though he only played 22% of the snaps, he saw 7 carries vs Tracy’s 9.
The matchup is pristine: the 5.05 ypc average allowed by the Saints ranks as the 2nd worst.

Ameer Abdullah vs TB

The Bucs are tied for the most receptions allowed to running backs, they rank 2nd to last in rec yards allowed to the position. This obviously pairs perfectly with Abdullah’s skill set. And considering that the Raiders should be trailing by quite a bit in this game, don’t be surprised if they lean on Double-A out of the backfield.
Over his last 2 games, the veteran back is averaging 13 opportunities per game. Mattison is still banged up and Zamir looks unlikely to play. Abdullah will be leaned on again.

DEEP SLEEPER Sincere McCormick vs TB

I love his spices but wasn’t sure about him as a football player.
2nd year player out of UT-San Antonio, McCormick is 5-8 and 205 pounds. He ran a slow 4.6 forty with a sub-par 33.5 inch vertical. Given his size, those are insanely low measurables.
That being said, you only have to watch for a few carries to see that he can play. He’s extremely slippery at the tackle point. He can use a variety of last-minute spins and stiff arms to pick up extra yards. He plays a lot stronger than his 205 pound frame would indicate.
So yes, he lacks speed, but he has good vision and I really like his ability to change direction to find cut back lanes. He reminds me a lot of breakout rookie star Bucky Irving who was also lacked in measurables.
Given his traits, he’s a much better gap scheme runner than outside zone runner but for full transparency, it seemed as if they didn’t run much outside zone plays at UTSA. So maybe he can run zone and just wasn’t asked to. But given the speed, it would seem to make sense he’s a better man runner. Anyways, that’s all good stuff because since the coordinator change, the Raiders are running a lot more gap concepts.

Jerome Ford vs PIT

Last week against DEN, Ford surprisingly played 65% of the snaps versus 35% for Nick Chubb. They had the same number of carries (9) but Ford ended up running 35 routes vs Chubb’s 8. That didn’t play out in the box score but that is a huge discrepancy. That game was a surprising shootout so I’m not sure what to make of the utilization but it’s not nothing.
It’s a tough matchup overall vs PIT (6th fewest rush yards allowed) but the Steelers have been a bit more vulnerable to pass catchers out of the backfield as they are below league average in receptions, rec yards and yards/tar allowed to RB which makes his routes run numbers look pretty enticing.

Cam Akers vs ATL

Last week Aaron Jones played 51 percent of the snaps, Akers 31 percent which is enough volume to at least pique your interest. Fumbling issues sent Jones to the bench for a bit but he ended up coming back in and catching the game deciding TD. It’s fair to wonder if the team begins to work in Akers a bit more.
Plus we like this matchup: the Falcons are very middle of the road BUT they have allowed the 3rd most receptions to RB. This could be a path for Akers to surprise this week.

Braelon Allen vs MIA

Breece Hall missed practice Wed and Thurs because of a bad knee. Given the Jets record, I can’t imagine Breece is going to put his body at risk by fast tracking his recovery. (UPDATE: Breece is now being listed as doubtful, fire up Braelon with confidence.)
If it comes down to it, Isaiah Davis would be Braelon’s backup. He caught a TD last week, just his 7th offensive snap played at the time.
He’s a 6-0, 218 pound back out of South Dakota State who ran a 4.57 with a 34.5 inch vertical. Decent numbers for sure. Much like Braelon, Davis plays with physicality.

DEEP SLEEPER Darrynton Evans vs SF

There’s a good chunk of you who have absolutely no idea where Darrynton Evans plays football. It’s Chicago. And in the Windy City both D’Andre Swift (quad) and Roschon Johson (concussion) didn’t practice on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Travis Homer is listed as 3rd on the depth chart but they also have Darrynton on the practice squad. He seems like a much more likely starter than Homer should their top two backs both miss this game. (UPDATE: Roschon has been ruled out and Swift was an LP Friday carrying a questionable tag, if the team calls up Darrynton Evans or another RB, I would expect Swift to be a game day inactive.)
And the matchup is surprisingly soft as well. SF has allowed the 4th most touchdowns and the 9th fantasy points per game to the RB position.

DEEP SLEEPER Sean Tucker vs LV

Bucky Irving missed practice with his hip injury on both Wednesday and Thursday. If the Winter Soldier misses Rachaad White sees a huge boost but Sean Tucker is also back in our lives. (UPDATE: Bucky was back at practice Friday but continue to keep an eye on this.)
He hasn’t done anything recently but remember Tucker had that 34-point ppr explosion back in WK6 when given the opportunity

TIGHT ENDS

Juwan Johnson vs NYG

Taysom Hill unfortunately suffered an ACL tear which should open the door for Juwan Johnson to play a bigger role. With no Olave and now no Taysom, the target share should be wide open, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Juwan see 6-7 looks in this game.

DEEP SLEEPER Daniel Bellinger vs NO

Theo Johnson was put on IR and The Belly of the Beast should be the primary passing option at TE moving forward. I’ve long been a fan of his game, this completely unknown player has an insane 88% catch rate across 66 career targets. It’s not a bad matchup either, the Saints have given up the 7th most rec/g to TE.

DEEP SLEEPER Grant Calcaterra vs CAR

Dallas Goedert is likely to miss multiple weeks due to his knee injury and just like that Grant Calcaterra is back in our lives. When Goedert missed time before, Calcaterra had only one double digit ppr game all season, a 10.7 effort in WK6. He also had two decent 8-point ppr games against Cincy and Jacksonville in WK8 and 9. While not quite as juicy a matchup, the Panthers have allowed the 5th most fppg to the position. The 9.27 yards/tar allowed ranks as dead last.

James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on YouTube, Threads, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.

QUARTERBACK RANKINGS – WEEK 1

by James Koh | Sep 7, 2024 | Free

Player	Team	Opp	Age	ATT-L	ATT-M	ATT-H	Comp Low	Comp Med	Comp Hi	PYd-L	PYd-M	PYd-H	PassTD-L	Pass TD-M	PassTD-H	Int-L	Int-M	Int-H	RuAtt-L	RuAtt-M	RuAtt-H	RuYDS-L	RuYDS-M	RuYDS-H	RuTD-L	RuTD-M	RuTD-H	Fum-L	Fum-M	Fum-H	FP Low	FP Med	FP High	PosRnk
Lamar Jackson	BAL	@HOU	27	26.86	29.78	32.82	16.76	20.60	25.79	201.56	274.00	378.70	2.39	2.80	3.25	0.51	0.27	0.69	7.31	8.13	8.94	40.74	53.25	67.36	0.23	0.27	0.31	0.13	0.27	0.44	20.85	28.01	35.47	1
Joe Burrow	CIN	DEN	28	33.66	37.43	41.14	20.67	25.57	30.43	203.35	280.22	366.04	2.10	2.52	2.98	0.61	0.54	0.86	2.22	2.47	2.71	9.03	11.80	14.93	0.11	0.15	0.19	0.13	0.27	0.44	15.49	21.74	27.69	2
Josh Allen	BUF	NYJ	28	25.54	28.38	31.21	14.65	18.09	21.84	160.64	220.48	292.78	1.32	1.61	1.93	0.74	0.37	0.97	5.82	6.47	7.11	26.21	34.27	43.35	0.51	0.64	0.71	0.06	0.12	0.20	15.02	21.52	26.41	3
Jayden Daniels	WAS	ATL	24	25.70	28.50	31.40	16.36	20.14	24.98	163.51	222.65	304.81	1.29	1.57	1.89	0.49	0.53	0.72	7.68	8.53	9.39	37.59	49.13	62.15	0.35	0.43	0.52	0.07	0.13	0.21	15.65	21.34	27.94	4
Baker Mayfield	TB	CAR	29	29.40	32.57	35.91	19.33	23.73	30.07	194.28	262.89	368.85	2.06	2.45	2.88	0.53	0.97	0.75	3.00	3.33	3.67	15.71	20.53	25.97	0.06	0.08	0.10	0.17	0.33	0.54	15.36	20.25	28.07	5
Bo Nix	DEN	@CIN	24	32.49	36.00	39.69	19.70	24.15	30.57	180.45	243.57	341.68	1.51	1.86	2.25	0.75	0.78	1.07	4.68	5.20	5.72	17.95	23.47	29.69	0.16	0.21	0.26	0.03	0.06	0.09	13.73	19.09	25.62	6
Sam Darnold	MIN	GB	27	28.78	32.03	35.19	17.12	21.20	24.93	185.44	256.32	330.31	1.72	2.07	2.46	0.69	0.76	0.91	3.66	4.07	4.47	10.46	13.67	17.29	0.09	0.10	0.12	0.11	0.22	0.36	13.32	18.55	23.86	7
Jared Goff	DET	@SF	30	28.75	31.99	35.14	18.17	22.50	26.49	196.44	271.44	350.32	1.74	2.09	2.48	0.43	0.68	0.60	1.92	2.13	2.35	3.01	3.93	4.98	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.08	0.16	0.26	13.68	18.27	23.75	8
Kyler Murray	ARI	@LA	27	29.93	33.22	36.57	18.71	23.04	28.48	178.22	242.95	331.29	1.00	1.28	1.59	0.54	0.65	0.77	4.26	4.73	5.21	26.42	34.53	43.68	0.25	0.28	0.32	0.12	0.23	0.38	12.98	18.22	24.61	9
Brock Purdy	SF	DET	25	29.20	32.43	35.69	17.16	21.17	25.81	197.92	270.95	363.74	1.07	1.35	1.67	0.64	0.77	0.89	4.05	4.50	4.95	16.99	22.21	28.10	0.17	0.20	0.24	0.11	0.22	0.35	12.44	17.71	23.96	10
Patrick Mahomes	KC	@PIT	29	31.85	35.38	38.92	19.36	23.90	28.98	174.82	239.66	319.78	1.28	1.60	1.95	0.57	0.67	0.86	3.26	3.63	3.99	14.68	19.19	24.27	0.11	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.05	0.08	12.35	17.21	22.71	11
Aaron Rodgers	NYJ	@BUF	41	34.65	38.49	42.35	19.65	24.25	29.48	186.94	256.08	342.73	1.42	1.77	2.16	0.28	0.58	0.47	1.32	1.47	1.61	5.46	7.13	9.02	0.08	0.09	0.11	0.07	0.15	0.24	12.79	17.16	23.21	12
Jordan Love	GB	@MIN	26	28.96	32.21	35.40	16.30	20.16	23.98	188.74	260.06	339.54	1.59	1.93	2.30	0.38	0.93	0.60	1.66	1.85	2.03	4.53	5.92	7.49	0.08	0.09	0.11	0.07	0.13	0.22	13.21	17.15	23.26	13
Caleb Williams	CHI	SEA	23	30.53	33.93	37.32	17.60	21.66	26.08	162.69	222.53	294.63	0.92	1.20	1.50	0.82	0.38	1.08	4.39	4.88	5.36	22.90	29.94	37.87	0.15	0.17	0.20	0.11	0.23	0.37	10.48	16.49	20.90	14
C.J. Stroud	HOU	BAL	23	29.16	32.31	35.62	16.95	20.80	26.35	173.71	235.12	329.71	1.14	1.42	1.75	0.41	0.74	0.57	2.93	3.25	3.58	11.14	14.56	18.42	0.16	0.20	0.23	0.07	0.15	0.24	11.96	15.96	22.45	15
Joe Flacco	IND	@NYG	39	27.38	30.38	33.45	16.59	20.43	25.23	170.72	232.80	317.18	1.41	1.71	2.05	0.38	0.89	0.64	1.20	1.33	1.47	3.19	4.17	5.27	0.05	0.09	0.18	0.11	0.21	0.35	11.10	14.93	21.51	16
Justin Herbert	LAC	@NE	26	24.50	27.23	29.95	14.20	17.55	21.10	148.69	204.33	270.04	0.88	1.11	1.37	0.32	0.19	0.51	3.72	4.13	4.55	12.85	16.80	21.25	0.19	0.21	0.24	0.08	0.15	0.25	10.35	14.88	19.05	17
Russell Wilson	PIT	KC	36	28.11	31.20	34.35	16.52	20.36	25.07	177.58	242.39	329.15	1.05	1.32	1.62	0.53	0.82	0.72	3.51	3.90	4.29	10.63	13.90	17.58	0.07	0.09	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.33	10.66	14.81	20.75	18
Michael Penix	ATL	@WAS	24	29.30	32.55	35.81	17.30	21.36	25.83	177.89	244.05	324.65	1.02	1.30	1.61	0.56	1.02	0.82	2.10	2.33	2.57	10.26	13.42	16.97	0.09	0.12	0.14	0.10	0.20	0.32	10.52	14.58	20.66	19
Mason Rudolph	TEN	@JAX	29	27.64	30.58	33.76	16.56	20.28	26.21	162.77	218.81	314.11	1.36	1.66	2.00	0.75	1.30	0.98	2.85	3.17	3.48	9.95	13.00	16.45	0.10	0.11	0.13	0.13	0.26	0.42	10.72	14.22	21.22	20
Bryce Young	CAR	@TB	23	27.15	30.04	33.15	16.68	20.27	25.85	156.05	208.17	294.93	1.01	1.27	1.56	0.52	0.84	0.76	2.70	3.00	3.30	13.83	18.08	22.88	0.12	0.15	0.18	0.06	0.11	0.18	10.50	14.20	20.29	21
Drake Maye	NE	LAC	22	26.45	29.39	32.33	16.11	19.89	24.11	147.12	201.71	269.00	1.05	1.31	1.61	0.48	0.93	0.68	3.93	4.36	4.80	20.38	26.64	33.70	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.15	0.30	0.49	10.10	13.92	19.80	22
Matthew Stafford	LAR	ARI	36	28.34	31.47	34.63	17.07	21.05	25.67	170.51	233.38	313.37	1.06	1.34	1.65	0.68	0.52	0.90	1.44	1.60	1.76	1.28	1.67	2.11	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.08	0.16	0.25	9.02	13.65	17.97	23
Geno Smith	SEA	@CHI	34	29.78	33.14	36.41	18.50	22.92	26.94	173.86	240.47	309.68	0.63	0.87	1.14	0.51	0.90	0.69	2.87	3.19	3.51	12.34	16.13	20.40	0.07	0.09	0.11	0.11	0.22	0.35	9.06	13.00	18.37	24
Spencer Rattler	NO	LV	24	26.05	28.91	31.83	13.28	16.36	20.16	123.35	168.26	228.73	0.82	1.05	1.32	0.49	0.58	0.73	2.52	2.80	3.08	13.62	17.80	22.52	0.11	0.14	0.17	0.15	0.31	0.50	7.78	11.79	16.39	25
Mac Jones	JAX	TEN	26	28.56	31.70	34.90	16.98	20.92	25.74	144.36	196.99	267.26	0.91	1.17	1.46	0.46	1.07	0.77	1.91	2.13	2.34	5.07	6.63	8.38	0.10	0.11	0.13	0.06	0.12	0.20	8.57	11.51	17.10	26
Tyler Huntley	MIA	@CLE	26	26.30	29.20	32.14	14.08	17.36	21.24	123.24	168.47	227.10	0.58	0.79	1.03	0.50	0.73	0.68	4.80	5.33	5.87	17.09	22.33	28.25	0.15	0.18	0.21	0.09	0.18	0.29	7.95	11.36	16.08	27
Kenny Pickett	PHI	DAL	26	25.84	28.59	31.55	14.71	17.86	22.68	148.08	197.80	278.58	1.49	1.36	1.65	0.49	1.06	0.73	1.35	1.50	1.65	2.30	3.00	3.80	0.10	0.11	0.13	0.21	0.42	0.69	9.88	11.35	17.52	28
Cooper Rush	DAL	@PHI	31	27.98	31.11	34.21	15.36	18.99	22.71	135.55	186.61	245.01	0.91	1.16	1.45	0.48	0.33	0.68	2.05	2.27	2.50	1.11	1.45	1.84	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.20	0.40	0.65	6.80	11.16	14.86	29
Aidan O'Connell	LV	@NO	26	27.18	30.22	33.22	15.33	18.96	22.63	144.05	198.41	259.93	0.70	0.93	1.19	0.43	0.52	0.60	1.80	2.00	2.20	1.97	2.57	3.25	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.14	0.23	7.44	10.98	14.92	30
Drew Lock	NYG	IND	28	27.58	30.64	33.71	13.14	16.20	19.73	108.86	149.03	199.78	0.66	0.88	1.14	0.63	0.95	0.91	1.65	1.83	2.02	9.56	12.50	15.81	0.06	0.07	0.09	0.19	0.38	0.62	5.22	8.52	13.02	31
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	CLE	MIA	26	26.36	29.35	32.23	14.58	17.75	20.49	93.95	128.22	161.69	0.50	0.71	0.94	0.50	1.57	0.68	2.70	3.00	3.30	16.68	21.80	27.58	0.02	0.05	0.14	0.17	0.35	0.56	5.08	6.58	12.45	32
Player	Team	Opp	Age	ATT-L	ATT-M	ATT-H	Comp Low	Comp Med	Comp Hi	PYd-L	PYd-M	PYd-H	PassTD-L	Pass TD-M	PassTD-H	Int-L	Int-M	Int-H	RuAtt-L	RuAtt-M	RuAtt-H	RuYDS-L	RuYDS-M	RuYDS-H	RuTD-L	RuTD-M	RuTD-H	Fum-L	Fum-M	Fum-H	FP Low	FP Med	FP High	PosRnk

About the Rankings and Projections

by James Koh | Jul 17, 2024 | Free, Rankings

A few notes regarding the rankings and projections: If you’ve checked out my rankings pages, you’ve likely noticed I’ve done low, medium and high projections for every player. It’s triple […]

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Beating ESPN Rankings: Part I

by James Koh | Jul 10, 2024 | Free

Let’s be real, when drafting, the vast majority of folks make selections based off their platform’s ranking system.

For example, if James Conner is ranked RB22 (like he is on ESPN’s platform), you could see his ADP fluctuate maybe 5-8 spots in either direction. But the system feeds you the info and most managers work off what is presented. There’s obviously much more variance the deeper you get into the draft but you get the general premise.

So with that in mind, here are five players who’s ESPN rankings vary greatly from my own and how you can take advantage of what I consider mispriced players.

RUNNING BACKS

Zamir White (RB-LV)
ESPN Rank: RB27
Sleeper King Rank: RB9
Positional Difference: 🔼18

Am I being abnormally bullish on White by ranking him as a top 10 back? Most likely yes. But that being said, the big guys over at the four-letter having him outside the top 25 backs is borderline insane.

You can’t tell me he’s one of the five worst starting running backs, not after what we saw from him in limited action last year. Starting the last four games last year he averaged a whopping 114.3 scrimmage yards per game while averaging a rock-solid 4.73 ypc.

In terms of the depth chart, Ameer Abdullah is freaking 31 years old and the team only added the sluggish Alexander Mattison in the offseason, meaning Zeus has almost no competition for either receiving or rushing snaps. After writing all that out, I’m thinking my top 10 positional ranking isn’t actually that overzealous.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 45.2 rec, 1,475.5 yards, 8.77 TD

Trey Benson (RB-ARI)
ESPN Rank: RB45
Sleeper King Rank: RB29
Positional Difference: 🔼17

James Conner is 29 years old but damn, it feels like he’s childhood friends with Joe Biden. Given his age and bruising running style I’d be FLOORED if he plays more than 12 games. I mean, even in his athletic prime Conner was never the model of health; he’s played 13 or fewer games in five of his past six seasons.

The team spent a 3rd round pick on the explosive Benson who at 216 pounds ran a ridiculous 4.39 forty.

At RB29, I get that I’m being aggressive, placing Benson above actual starters but you’ll have to excuse the Sleeper King for putting an emphasis on upside. That being said, my ranking puts him around the average for other high-ceiling handcuffs which is exactly what he is.

Here’s the thing, Benson has standalone value too. The team would be smart to limit the workload of the aging Conner and I’m not convinced Emari Demercado has the juice to be anything more than a third-down option. He could be in a 40-60 split with Conner and also has unbelievable injury upside.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 29.84 rec, 968.96 scrimmage yards, 6.71 TD

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS)
ESPN Rank: WR71
Sleeper King Rank: WR43
Positional Difference: 🔼28

A WR71 ranking is downright disrespectful if we’re being honest. Just thinking about this realistically, this ranking projects him to be worse statistically than EVERY SINGLE WR2 in the league. My ranking projects him as a solid second option on his own team which feels right.

I know there’s some buzz surrounding Luke McCaffrey but in reality LMC is a project wide receiver meaning there is limited competition for targets behind Terry McLaurin and Dotson.

Plus with Eric Bieniemy gone, we can reasonably expect the Commanders to stop throwing to 17 different players and act like a more normal, functional NFL offense concentrating targets to your good players.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 65.1 rec, 813.75 yards, 5.97 TD

Christian Watson (WR-GB)
ESPN Rank: WR40
Sleeper King Rank: WR74
Positional Difference: 🔽34

Given Watson’s injury history and the crowded competition for targets in Green Bay, I’m not buying Watson as a low-end number 1 option. Hell as you can tell with my ranking, I don’t view Watson as a consistent number 2 receiver.

He has an important role as a splash play field stretcher but as a consistent target earner in a packed Packers’ offense? Nah.

Watson’s TD rate is unsustainable and given Jayden Reed’s Reception Perception profile, Reed could/should be the top target getter while Watson is battling Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs for outside receiver looks.

Given his athletic profile I could end up looking like an idiot (wouldn’t be the first time) but I’d rather not be left holding the bag on a player who has a limited route tree. At the very least, avoiding him at ESPN’s ADP will let you avoid the start-sit headaches associated with Watson’s wildly inconsistent weekly variance.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 39.6 rec, 613.8 yards, 5.04 TD

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
ESPN Rank: WR42
Sleeper King Rank: WR67
Positional Difference: 🔽24

I don’t think JSN is a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, I just don’t think he’s so good he’s going to demand snaps or targets over Tyler Lockett.

I understand ranking him ahead of Lockett given the age difference (22 vs 32) but Lockett was still very much a solid player last year. Lockett demanded nearly the same per-game target share as DK Metcalf with both taking home roughly 32% of all the WR targets. JSN was a tick behind at around 25%.

Plus with Dave Canales gone, Geno Smith took a step back as a passer in 2023. Does that slide continue as Smith enters his age-34 season?

A heavy competition for targets and a potentially declining passer, JSN is an easy avoid for me at his current ESPN cost.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 56.95 rec, 597.98 yards, 4.25 TD

James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King Football, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on X, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.