Beating ESPN Rankings: Part I

by James Koh | Jul 10, 2024 | Free

Let’s be real, when drafting, the vast majority of folks make selections based off their platform’s ranking system.

For example, if James Conner is ranked RB22 (like he is on ESPN’s platform), you could see his ADP fluctuate maybe 5-8 spots in either direction. But the system feeds you the info and most managers work off what is presented. There’s obviously much more variance the deeper you get into the draft but you get the general premise.

So with that in mind, here are five players who’s ESPN rankings vary greatly from my own and how you can take advantage of what I consider mispriced players.

RUNNING BACKS

Zamir White (RB-LV)
ESPN Rank: RB27
Sleeper King Rank: RB9
Positional Difference: 🔼18

Am I being abnormally bullish on White by ranking him as a top 10 back? Most likely yes. But that being said, the big guys over at the four-letter having him outside the top 25 backs is borderline insane.

You can’t tell me he’s one of the five worst starting running backs, not after what we saw from him in limited action last year. Starting the last four games last year he averaged a whopping 114.3 scrimmage yards per game while averaging a rock-solid 4.73 ypc.

In terms of the depth chart, Ameer Abdullah is freaking 31 years old and the team only added the sluggish Alexander Mattison in the offseason, meaning Zeus has almost no competition for either receiving or rushing snaps. After writing all that out, I’m thinking my top 10 positional ranking isn’t actually that overzealous.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 45.2 rec, 1,475.5 yards, 8.77 TD

Trey Benson (RB-ARI)
ESPN Rank: RB45
Sleeper King Rank: RB29
Positional Difference: 🔼17

James Conner is 29 years old but damn, it feels like he’s childhood friends with Joe Biden. Given his age and bruising running style I’d be FLOORED if he plays more than 12 games. I mean, even in his athletic prime Conner was never the model of health; he’s played 13 or fewer games in five of his past six seasons.

The team spent a 3rd round pick on the explosive Benson who at 216 pounds ran a ridiculous 4.39 forty.

At RB29, I get that I’m being aggressive, placing Benson above actual starters but you’ll have to excuse the Sleeper King for putting an emphasis on upside. That being said, my ranking puts him around the average for other high-ceiling handcuffs which is exactly what he is.

Here’s the thing, Benson has standalone value too. The team would be smart to limit the workload of the aging Conner and I’m not convinced Emari Demercado has the juice to be anything more than a third-down option. He could be in a 40-60 split with Conner and also has unbelievable injury upside.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 29.84 rec, 968.96 scrimmage yards, 6.71 TD

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS)
ESPN Rank: WR71
Sleeper King Rank: WR43
Positional Difference: 🔼28

A WR71 ranking is downright disrespectful if we’re being honest. Just thinking about this realistically, this ranking projects him to be worse statistically than EVERY SINGLE WR2 in the league. My ranking projects him as a solid second option on his own team which feels right.

I know there’s some buzz surrounding Luke McCaffrey but in reality LMC is a project wide receiver meaning there is limited competition for targets behind Terry McLaurin and Dotson.

Plus with Eric Bieniemy gone, we can reasonably expect the Commanders to stop throwing to 17 different players and act like a more normal, functional NFL offense concentrating targets to your good players.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 65.1 rec, 813.75 yards, 5.97 TD

Christian Watson (WR-GB)
ESPN Rank: WR40
Sleeper King Rank: WR74
Positional Difference: 🔽34

Given Watson’s injury history and the crowded competition for targets in Green Bay, I’m not buying Watson as a low-end number 1 option. Hell as you can tell with my ranking, I don’t view Watson as a consistent number 2 receiver.

He has an important role as a splash play field stretcher but as a consistent target earner in a packed Packers’ offense? Nah.

Watson’s TD rate is unsustainable and given Jayden Reed’s Reception Perception profile, Reed could/should be the top target getter while Watson is battling Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs for outside receiver looks.

Given his athletic profile I could end up looking like an idiot (wouldn’t be the first time) but I’d rather not be left holding the bag on a player who has a limited route tree. At the very least, avoiding him at ESPN’s ADP will let you avoid the start-sit headaches associated with Watson’s wildly inconsistent weekly variance.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 39.6 rec, 613.8 yards, 5.04 TD

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
ESPN Rank: WR42
Sleeper King Rank: WR67
Positional Difference: 🔽24

I don’t think JSN is a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, I just don’t think he’s so good he’s going to demand snaps or targets over Tyler Lockett.

I understand ranking him ahead of Lockett given the age difference (22 vs 32) but Lockett was still very much a solid player last year. Lockett demanded nearly the same per-game target share as DK Metcalf with both taking home roughly 32% of all the WR targets. JSN was a tick behind at around 25%.

Plus with Dave Canales gone, Geno Smith took a step back as a passer in 2023. Does that slide continue as Smith enters his age-34 season?

A heavy competition for targets and a potentially declining passer, JSN is an easy avoid for me at his current ESPN cost.

Sleeper King Medium Projections: 56.95 rec, 597.98 yards, 4.25 TD

James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King Football, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on X, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.