21 Sleepers for WK16: Patrick Taylor a must start?

21 Sleepers for WK16: Patrick Taylor a must start?

QUARTERBACKS

Cooper Rush vs TB

  • Bucs allow the 2nd most fppg to QB. 
  • 2+ TD in 3 of his last 4 games. 
  • TB gives up tons of production to QB: 6 of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced have posted 23 or more fantasy points. The quarterbacks who haven’t: a banged up Herbert, AOC, Danny Devito and Spencer Rattler. 

Aaron Rodgers vs LAR

  • The Rams have allowed the 9th most fppg to QB. 
  • Rodgers is coming off his best game of the season; a 30-point explosion game vs the Jags. 
  • From a matchup perspective the Rams are bottom 10 in sacks, great for Rodgers to sit back and dissect a defense. They’re also bottom 10 in receptions and touchdowns allowed on deep passes this year, an area that Rodgers is addicted to trying to exploit. 
  • After a sluggish start, likely due to age and injury, he’s coming around. He’s scored 2+ TD in 5 of his last 7 games. 

Mac Jones vs LV

  • 6 of the last 7 QBs to face LV have posted 16 or more fantasy points with 3 of those going for 20+. The only QB to not crack 16? The aforementioned Kirk Cousins last week. 
  • Lil Mac has been extremely up and down (mostly down) but he has scored 18+ in 2 of his last 3 games. 

RUNNING BACKS

Patrick Taylor vs MIA

  • Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) didn’t practice Wednesday. Remember he has dealt with hamstring issues throughout his collegiate career AND was out most of training camp with a hamstring injury as well. 
  • It’s a decent matchup as well. The Dolphins are dead last in yards after contact allowed to the position. 

DEEP SLEEPER Antonio Gibson vs BUF

  • We start the analysis by saying Rhamondre is a hard fade this week. The Pats are a 14 point dog and remember Stevenson does not do well in negative game scripts. He had just 9.5 ppr points last week, a 30-17 loss. On the season, in the five games the Patriots have lost by 7 or more points, Rhamondre is averaging just 5.16 ppr points per game with zero double digit ppr games. 
  • The reverse correlation isn’t true with Antonio Gibson where he scores better in blowouts, mostly because the team has experimented with Jamychal Hasty as the primary backup to Rhamondre. But last week Hasty only played on two offensive snaps while Gibson took home 15 snaps (30%). 
  • The ARI game was also close in the first half, if BUF jumps out to a big lead early Gibson’s snap share could push 50%. 
  • The Bills have given up the MOST receptions and rec yards to RB this year. 

Ameer Abdullah vs JAX

  • Sincere McCormick injured his ankle. Zamir White is on IR. Only Abdullah and Mattison remain. I’ll take my chances on a guy that has shown a LOT more in the passing game. 
  • The Jags have given up the 5th most receptions and the 2nd most rec yards to RB’s, this obviously pairs perfectly with what Abdullah does as a receiving back. 

Jerome Ford vs CIN

  • Chubb broken foot. Solid matchup vs CIN as the Bengals are generally below league average in a number of defensive rushing stats, specifically they rank 5th worst in yards after contact allowed. 
  • Ford looked randomly explosive as hell on that big 62 yard run for TD plus he’s been productive in this system before. 

Kendre Miller vs GB

  • Kamara is dealing with a groin injury. We don’t know the severity but he missed practice Wednesday. The team also signed recently released Clyde Edwards Helaire, a pretty clear indication that Kamara is likely to miss WK16.  
  • Considering the Saints are likely to trail big against GB it’s encouraging that the Packers have allowed the 6th most receptions and the 4th most rec yards to RB on the year. 

Tyjae Spears vs IND

  • Tony Pollard didn’t practice Wednesday with his ankle injury. 
  • Beautiful matchup: the Colts have allowed the 3rd most scrimmage yards to RB and are bottom 10 in both yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed. 
  • Big explosion game for Spears in WK15: only 4 car for 5 yards but his 7 targets resulted in 6 rec, 87 rec yards. Add in the 2 total TD’s and he racked up 27.2 ppr points. 

DEEP SLEEPER Craig Reynolds vs CHI

  • It sounds like Reynolds will get the first crack at being Jahmyr’s backup with Montgomery out for the foreseeable future. 
  • At 216 pounds, his size and game profile more as the power complement to Gibbs than Sione Vaki. 
  • The Bears have given up the 5th most fppg to the position 

DEEP SLEEPER Sione Vaki vs CHI

  • Speaking of Vaki, he’s a rookie out of Utah with such an interesting athletic profile. He’s a converted CORNER.  At 5-10, 210 pounds he ran a slow 4.62 forty but also posted a super impressive 39.5 inch vertical with 10’5” broad jump. 
  • And yeah, when you turn on his running back highlight tape you see a lack of top end speed but good lateral quickness. He’s got GREAT hands. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

“Stone Cold” Calvin Austin vs BAL

  • George Pickens is out another week with his hamstring injury putting Stone Cold Calvin Austin back in the limelight. Last week Austin ran the most routes, played the most snaps and led the team in receptions (5) and yards (65). 
  • It’s a great matchup as the Ravens have given up the 2nd most fppg to WRs lined up outside. While he’s been primarily a slot guy this year, with Pickens out he lined up outside on more than 60% of his snaps. 

Brandin Cooks vs TB

  • We know that TB has stunk up the joint defending the pass but to make matters worse for the Bucs, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed practice again on Thursday. Even with Winfield in there the Bucs have given up the 5th most fppg to outside receivers including the 2nd most receptions and the 3rd most touchdowns. 
  • Brandin Cooks has re-established himself as the primary outside weapon for Dallas. Last week he led the team in routes run while being second to CeeDee in targets, receptions and yards. 

DEEP SLEEPER: MVS vs GB

  • One word: REVENNNGGGGGEEEE!!!!
  • In all seriousness, I do think MVS will have extra motivation seeing his former team but the matchup isn’t that bad. GB is tied for the 4th most TD allowed to outside receivers. 
  • MVS has seen a healthy 7 targets in back to back games and with Spencer Rattler slated to start, more downfield shots could be in the works. 
  • NOTE: keep an eye on the injury report though as MVS is working through a chest injury. 

Pop Douglas vs BUF

  • The Bills have allowed the 3rd most rec and the 2nd most yards to the slot this year. They are dead comp% and yards/att allowed to inside receivers as well. 
  • With the Pats a huge 14-point dog, expect a lot more passes to be thrown especially in the second half. Douglas could run into 10+ targets and give 6-9 rec for 60-80 yards. 

Adam Thielen vs ARI

  • The Cards have given up the 6th most fppg to inside receivers and Thielen has been Bryce Young’s go-to receiver. Over his last 3 games Theilen is averaging a whopping 9.3 targets per game resulting in 7.3 rec and 84.0 yards per contest. 

DEEP SLEEPER: Jalen Coker vs ARI

  • Xavier Legette (hip) is most likely out this week. This will open up a good amount of target share for the unheralded rookie out of Holy Cross. 

DEEP SLEEPER: Wan’Dale Robinson vs ATL

  • Robinson has averaged 10.0 tar per game over his last 2 games and the matchup is solid. The Falcons have allowed the 6th most receptions to the slot and the 9 scores allowed to inside receivers is tied for the 2nd most in the NFL. 

DEEP SLEEPER: Parker Washington vs LV

  • Speaking of TD’s allowed to the slot, the Raiders have also allowed 9 scores inside. 
  • While Washington has been feast or famine this year, he is out there a lot. Among WR’s he was second on the team in snaps and routes run. 

TIGHT ENDS

“Dr.” Brenton Strange vs LV

  • Coming off of a 12-target, 11-rec performance, this one is a no brainer. The Jags seem obsessed with throwing to TE’s and the Raiders give up the 4th most fppg to the position group. 
  • Keep an eye on his injury status though as Strange is working through a shoulder injury. 

DEEP SLEEPER: Chig Okonkwo vs IND

  • I’m not 100% sure what to make of Chig’s 10-target game last week. That was literally a career high for him after being rarely used for much of the season. Could there be a small shift in offensive identity with Levis being benched? 
  • The matchup is nice too as the Colts have given up the 5th most fppg to TE this year. 

James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on YouTube, Threads, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.

McCormick & 23 Sleepers for BYE WEEK HELL

McCormick & 23 Sleepers for BYE WEEK HELL

It’s bye week HELL (part II) and with many of you fighting for your playoff lives I had to dig deep into my bag for this list. With six teams on a bye, I still got around to digging up 10 running backs and 23 total players that I think hopefully can help those of you in desperate need.

Some of these players, especially the running backs, will be dependent on injuries but I’m trying to help out managers of all league sizes. If you find this information on this free preview helpful, consider supporting my work by either subscribing to the site (your subscription is good for a full calendar year) or by subscribing to my podcast via Apple Podcast, through Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Onto the sleepers!

QUARTERBACKS

Cooper Rush vs CIN 

  • As far as streamers go, Rush isn’t bad. Over his last 3 games Rush has a 350-yard game against a solid HOU defense and a 247-yard, 2 TD game against WAS. 
  • This week he’s taking on a CIN defense that has potentially thrown in the towel on 2024. They’ve given up 24+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 5 QB’s they’ve faced. 

Aidan O’Connell vs TB

  • AOC is coming off a shockingly good 340-yard, 2-TD performance and he’s taking on a  Tampa team that has been getting gashed through the air. Five of their past six quarterbacks have posted an INSANE 23 or more fantasy points against them. 

Billy Jeans aka Will Levis vs JAX 

  • By hook or by crook Levis has gotten the job done since returning from injury. He’s scored exactly two touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games played. And while it hasn’t been pretty, he’s slinging it. If Jameis Winston is the Peyton Manning of Blake Bortles’, Levis is like the Daniel Jones of Jay Cutlers. 
  • The Jags have been horrific defensively all season long, having given up the most pass yards and the 3rd most touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Adam Thielen vs PHI

  • The Eagles have been much tougher versus outside receivers meanwhile they’re softer vs the slot. PHI has allowed the 11th most touchdowns to inside receivers. 
  • Coming off a strong 10 target game (8 rec, 99 yards, TD), Thielen and Bryce Young have built a chemistry going back to last year. 
  • Jalen Coker is now being listed as doubtful meaning Thielen will definitely stay in the slot and away from Philly’s outside CB’s.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs JAX

  • This run by NWI is absolutely bonkers. After scoring another two touchdowns this past week, he’s now got 8 touchdowns over his last 8 games. His 8 scores is tied for the 4th most in the NFL. Insane stuff. 
  • I usually hate to chase but the matchup is pristine. Jacksonville has allowed the 2nd most fppg to outside receivers. 
  • Plus I also don’t hate the volume. There’s obviously a dearth of pass catches in Tennessee and NWI has seen 5 or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games. It’s not world beating stuff but it’s a respectable volume level in a plus-plus matchup. 

Sterling Shepard vs LV

  • Shepard has moved around the formation but last week he played about 70% of his snaps lined up inside with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan as the primary outside guys. 
  • The Raiders have given up the 2nd most TD and the 7th most fppg to inside receivers on the season. 

MVS vs NYG

  • The Giants have given up the 8th most fppg on deep passes this year. They rank dead last in both completion percentage and yards/tar when a pass catcher is targeted 20+ air yards downfield. 
  • Speaking of comp%, they currently allow an insane 69.2% comp rate on deep passes, the next highest is JAX at 52.3% with league average at 34.8%. The Giants are essentially DOUBLE league average in that stat. It’s actually impressive how bad the Giants are at defending deep passes. 

Darnell Mooney vs MIN

  • Moons over My Hammy has been held in check the last two weeks but that was against two tough defenses in the Broncos and Chargers. The Vikings meanwhile are a gambling style defense that makes plays but gives them up as well. They’ve allowed the most fppg to wide receivers this year. 
  • Prior to his two game skid, Mooney had posted three straight strong games of 18.6, 19.8 and 14.6 ppr points respectively. 
  • I’m obviously worried about Kirk Cousins but let’s see if the old dog has one more revenge game in him against his former MIN squad. 

Brandin Cooks vs CIN

  • This could also be Jalen Tolbert but Cooks saw more targets than Tolbert last week (7 vs 4) and ran a similar number of routes. 
  • The matchup is one of the best on the board; CIN has given up the 6th most yards to outside receivers this year and the 5th most fantasy points. 
  • The Bengals have allowed 15+ ppr points to a starting outside receiver in 5 of their last 6 games. 

DEEP SLEEPER Tre Tucker vs TB

  • Tucker is coming off of back-to-back productive games (15.2 and 13.9 ppr points). I mean sure his Week 13 game production came essentially on one pass (58 yard TD) but again, the Bucs have been gashed all year long by outside receivers. They’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions and the 3rd most touchdowns to outside receivers. 
  • And remember DJ Turner, who had been seeing significant action for the Raiders in recent weeks, was placed on IR freeing up more targets. 

DEEP SLEEPER Jalen Nailor vs ATL

  • The Falcons are getting steam rolled by receivers in the slot having allowed the 3rd most receptions and the 5th most fantasy points per game to the inside. Three of the last four primary slot receivers have scored 11+ ppr points vs ATL. 

RUNNING BACKS

Isaac Guerendo vs CHI

  • This is such an obvious one I thought about not including it but let’s run down some of the numbers. The Bears allow 4.89 ypc (5th worst) and allow the 4th highest explosive run rate. A team that gives up a lot of big plays on the ground to a 220 pound back with 4.33 speed is an enticing recipe. You add in the fact that Shanny can’t help but feed just one back at a time and you’ve got yourself a potential top back this week. 
  • I have him ranked as a top 15 RB but he’s got potential to be a top 5 play this week. Rankings here

DEEP SLEEPER Patrick Taylor vs CHI

  • Isaac Guerendo is obviously the next man up but let’s not forget that he has a long history of hamstring injuries going back throughout his college career, the same injury that kept him out of most of training camp.  
  • I know the team added the uber-athletic Israel Abanikanda but he’s been with the team for like 17 minutes, let’s chill. He could be featured in a few weeks but if we’re just playing for this week, Taylor is most likely the direct backup to IG. 
  • Taylor is NOT some little jitterbug back. He’s 6-2, 217 pounds and ran a 4.57 at the combine back in 2020. Not the fastest time but plenty fast given his size. 
  • If Taylor finds his way onto the football field it’s a good matchup. The Bears have struggled to stop the run, the 4.89 ypc allowed to opposing RB’s ranks as 5th worst. 

Devin Singletary vs NO

  • We obviously love Tryone Tracy but don’t forget about the crafty veteran either. Last week even though he only played 22% of the snaps, he saw 7 carries vs Tracy’s 9. 
  • The matchup is pristine: the 5.05 ypc average allowed by the Saints ranks as the 2nd worst. 

Ameer Abdullah vs TB

  • The Bucs are tied for the most receptions allowed to running backs, they rank 2nd to last in rec yards allowed to the position. This obviously pairs perfectly with Abdullah’s skill set.  And considering that the Raiders should be trailing by quite a bit in this game, don’t be surprised if they lean on Double-A out of the backfield. 
  • Over his last 2 games, the veteran back is averaging 13 opportunities per game. Mattison is still banged up and Zamir looks unlikely to play. Abdullah will be leaned on again. 

DEEP SLEEPER Sincere McCormick vs TB

  • I love his spices but wasn’t sure about him as a football player. 
  • 2nd year player out of UT-San Antonio, McCormick is 5-8 and 205 pounds. He ran a slow 4.6 forty with a sub-par 33.5 inch vertical. Given his size, those are insanely low measurables. 
  • That being said, you only have to watch for a few carries to see that he can play. He’s extremely slippery at the tackle point. He can use a variety of last-minute spins and stiff arms to pick up extra yards. He plays a lot stronger than his 205 pound frame would indicate. 
  • So yes, he lacks speed, but he has good vision and I really like his ability to change direction to find cut back lanes. He reminds me a lot of breakout rookie star Bucky Irving who was also lacked in measurables. 
  • Given his traits, he’s a much better gap scheme runner than outside zone runner but for full transparency, it seemed as if they didn’t run much outside zone plays at UTSA. So maybe he can run zone and just wasn’t asked to. But given the speed, it would seem to make sense he’s a better man runner. Anyways, that’s all good stuff because since the coordinator change, the Raiders are running a lot more gap concepts. 

Jerome Ford vs PIT 

  • Last week against DEN, Ford surprisingly played 65% of the snaps versus 35% for Nick Chubb. They had the same number of carries (9) but Ford ended up running 35 routes vs Chubb’s 8. That didn’t play out in the box score but that is a huge discrepancy. That game was a surprising shootout so I’m not sure what to make of the utilization but it’s not nothing. 
  • It’s a tough matchup overall vs PIT (6th fewest rush yards allowed) but the Steelers have been a bit more vulnerable to pass catchers out of the backfield as they are below league average in receptions, rec yards and yards/tar allowed to RB which makes his routes run numbers look pretty enticing. 

Cam Akers vs ATL 

  • Last week Aaron Jones played 51 percent of the snaps, Akers 31 percent which is enough volume to at least pique your interest. Fumbling issues sent Jones to the bench for a bit but he ended up coming back in and catching the game deciding TD. It’s fair to wonder if the team begins to work in Akers a bit more. 
  • Plus we like this matchup: the Falcons are very middle of the road BUT they have allowed the 3rd most receptions to RB. This could be a path for Akers to surprise this week. 

Braelon Allen vs MIA

  • Breece Hall missed practice Wed and Thurs because of a bad knee. Given the Jets record, I can’t imagine Breece is going to put his body at risk by fast tracking his recovery. (UPDATE: Breece is now being listed as doubtful, fire up Braelon with confidence.)
  • If it comes down to it, Isaiah Davis would be Braelon’s backup. He caught a TD last week, just his 7th offensive snap played at the time. 
  • He’s a 6-0, 218 pound back out of South Dakota State who ran a 4.57 with a 34.5 inch vertical. Decent numbers for sure. Much like Braelon, Davis plays with physicality. 

DEEP SLEEPER Darrynton Evans vs SF

  • There’s a good chunk of you who have absolutely no idea where Darrynton Evans plays football. It’s Chicago. And in the Windy City both D’Andre Swift (quad) and Roschon Johson (concussion) didn’t practice on both Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Travis Homer is listed as 3rd on the depth chart but they also have Darrynton on the practice squad. He seems like a much more likely starter than Homer should their top two backs both miss this game. (UPDATE: Roschon has been ruled out and Swift was an LP Friday carrying a questionable tag, if the team calls up Darrynton Evans or another RB, I would expect Swift to be a game day inactive.)
  • And the matchup is surprisingly soft as well. SF has allowed the 4th most touchdowns and the 9th fantasy points per game to the RB position. 

DEEP SLEEPER Sean Tucker vs LV

  • Bucky Irving missed practice with his hip injury on both Wednesday and Thursday. If the Winter Soldier misses Rachaad White sees a huge boost but Sean Tucker is also back in our lives. (UPDATE: Bucky was back at practice Friday but continue to keep an eye on this.)
  • He hasn’t done anything recently but remember Tucker had that 34-point ppr explosion back in WK6 when given the opportunity 

TIGHT ENDS

Juwan Johnson vs NYG 

  • Taysom Hill unfortunately suffered an ACL tear which should open the door for Juwan Johnson to play a bigger role. With no Olave and now no Taysom, the target share should be wide open, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Juwan see 6-7 looks in this game. 

DEEP SLEEPER Daniel Bellinger vs NO 

  • Theo Johnson was put on IR and The Belly of the Beast should be the primary passing option at TE moving forward. I’ve long been a fan of his game, this completely unknown player has an insane 88% catch rate across 66 career targets. It’s not a bad matchup either, the Saints have given up the 7th most rec/g to TE.

DEEP SLEEPER Grant Calcaterra vs CAR

  • Dallas Goedert is likely to miss multiple weeks due to his knee injury and just like that Grant Calcaterra is back in our lives. When Goedert missed time before, Calcaterra had only one double digit ppr game all season, a 10.7 effort in WK6. He also had two decent 8-point ppr games against Cincy and Jacksonville in WK8 and 9. While not quite as juicy a matchup, the Panthers have allowed the 5th most fppg to the position. The 9.27 yards/tar allowed ranks as dead last. 

James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on YouTube, Threads, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.