QUARTERBACKS
Cooper Rush vs TB
- Bucs allow the 2nd most fppg to QB.
- 2+ TD in 3 of his last 4 games.
- TB gives up tons of production to QB: 6 of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced have posted 23 or more fantasy points. The quarterbacks who haven’t: a banged up Herbert, AOC, Danny Devito and Spencer Rattler.
Aaron Rodgers vs LAR
- The Rams have allowed the 9th most fppg to QB.
- Rodgers is coming off his best game of the season; a 30-point explosion game vs the Jags.
- From a matchup perspective the Rams are bottom 10 in sacks, great for Rodgers to sit back and dissect a defense. They’re also bottom 10 in receptions and touchdowns allowed on deep passes this year, an area that Rodgers is addicted to trying to exploit.
- After a sluggish start, likely due to age and injury, he’s coming around. He’s scored 2+ TD in 5 of his last 7 games.
Mac Jones vs LV
- 6 of the last 7 QBs to face LV have posted 16 or more fantasy points with 3 of those going for 20+. The only QB to not crack 16? The aforementioned Kirk Cousins last week.
- Lil Mac has been extremely up and down (mostly down) but he has scored 18+ in 2 of his last 3 games.
RUNNING BACKS
Patrick Taylor vs MIA
- Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) didn’t practice Wednesday. Remember he has dealt with hamstring issues throughout his collegiate career AND was out most of training camp with a hamstring injury as well.
- It’s a decent matchup as well. The Dolphins are dead last in yards after contact allowed to the position.
DEEP SLEEPER Antonio Gibson vs BUF
- We start the analysis by saying Rhamondre is a hard fade this week. The Pats are a 14 point dog and remember Stevenson does not do well in negative game scripts. He had just 9.5 ppr points last week, a 30-17 loss. On the season, in the five games the Patriots have lost by 7 or more points, Rhamondre is averaging just 5.16 ppr points per game with zero double digit ppr games.
- The reverse correlation isn’t true with Antonio Gibson where he scores better in blowouts, mostly because the team has experimented with Jamychal Hasty as the primary backup to Rhamondre. But last week Hasty only played on two offensive snaps while Gibson took home 15 snaps (30%).
- The ARI game was also close in the first half, if BUF jumps out to a big lead early Gibson’s snap share could push 50%.
- The Bills have given up the MOST receptions and rec yards to RB this year.
Ameer Abdullah vs JAX
- Sincere McCormick injured his ankle. Zamir White is on IR. Only Abdullah and Mattison remain. I’ll take my chances on a guy that has shown a LOT more in the passing game.
- The Jags have given up the 5th most receptions and the 2nd most rec yards to RB’s, this obviously pairs perfectly with what Abdullah does as a receiving back.
Jerome Ford vs CIN
- Chubb broken foot. Solid matchup vs CIN as the Bengals are generally below league average in a number of defensive rushing stats, specifically they rank 5th worst in yards after contact allowed.
- Ford looked randomly explosive as hell on that big 62 yard run for TD plus he’s been productive in this system before.
Kendre Miller vs GB
- Kamara is dealing with a groin injury. We don’t know the severity but he missed practice Wednesday. The team also signed recently released Clyde Edwards Helaire, a pretty clear indication that Kamara is likely to miss WK16.
- Considering the Saints are likely to trail big against GB it’s encouraging that the Packers have allowed the 6th most receptions and the 4th most rec yards to RB on the year.
Tyjae Spears vs IND
- Tony Pollard didn’t practice Wednesday with his ankle injury.
- Beautiful matchup: the Colts have allowed the 3rd most scrimmage yards to RB and are bottom 10 in both yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed.
- Big explosion game for Spears in WK15: only 4 car for 5 yards but his 7 targets resulted in 6 rec, 87 rec yards. Add in the 2 total TD’s and he racked up 27.2 ppr points.
DEEP SLEEPER Craig Reynolds vs CHI
- It sounds like Reynolds will get the first crack at being Jahmyr’s backup with Montgomery out for the foreseeable future.
- At 216 pounds, his size and game profile more as the power complement to Gibbs than Sione Vaki.
- The Bears have given up the 5th most fppg to the position
DEEP SLEEPER Sione Vaki vs CHI
- Speaking of Vaki, he’s a rookie out of Utah with such an interesting athletic profile. He’s a converted CORNER. At 5-10, 210 pounds he ran a slow 4.62 forty but also posted a super impressive 39.5 inch vertical with 10’5” broad jump.
- And yeah, when you turn on his running back highlight tape you see a lack of top end speed but good lateral quickness. He’s got GREAT hands.
WIDE RECEIVERS
“Stone Cold” Calvin Austin vs BAL
- George Pickens is out another week with his hamstring injury putting Stone Cold Calvin Austin back in the limelight. Last week Austin ran the most routes, played the most snaps and led the team in receptions (5) and yards (65).
- It’s a great matchup as the Ravens have given up the 2nd most fppg to WRs lined up outside. While he’s been primarily a slot guy this year, with Pickens out he lined up outside on more than 60% of his snaps.
Brandin Cooks vs TB
- We know that TB has stunk up the joint defending the pass but to make matters worse for the Bucs, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed practice again on Thursday. Even with Winfield in there the Bucs have given up the 5th most fppg to outside receivers including the 2nd most receptions and the 3rd most touchdowns.
- Brandin Cooks has re-established himself as the primary outside weapon for Dallas. Last week he led the team in routes run while being second to CeeDee in targets, receptions and yards.
DEEP SLEEPER: MVS vs GB
- One word: REVENNNGGGGGEEEE!!!!
- In all seriousness, I do think MVS will have extra motivation seeing his former team but the matchup isn’t that bad. GB is tied for the 4th most TD allowed to outside receivers.
- MVS has seen a healthy 7 targets in back to back games and with Spencer Rattler slated to start, more downfield shots could be in the works.
- NOTE: keep an eye on the injury report though as MVS is working through a chest injury.
Pop Douglas vs BUF
- The Bills have allowed the 3rd most rec and the 2nd most yards to the slot this year. They are dead comp% and yards/att allowed to inside receivers as well.
- With the Pats a huge 14-point dog, expect a lot more passes to be thrown especially in the second half. Douglas could run into 10+ targets and give 6-9 rec for 60-80 yards.
Adam Thielen vs ARI
- The Cards have given up the 6th most fppg to inside receivers and Thielen has been Bryce Young’s go-to receiver. Over his last 3 games Theilen is averaging a whopping 9.3 targets per game resulting in 7.3 rec and 84.0 yards per contest.
DEEP SLEEPER: Jalen Coker vs ARI
- Xavier Legette (hip) is most likely out this week. This will open up a good amount of target share for the unheralded rookie out of Holy Cross.
DEEP SLEEPER: Wan’Dale Robinson vs ATL
- Robinson has averaged 10.0 tar per game over his last 2 games and the matchup is solid. The Falcons have allowed the 6th most receptions to the slot and the 9 scores allowed to inside receivers is tied for the 2nd most in the NFL.
DEEP SLEEPER: Parker Washington vs LV
- Speaking of TD’s allowed to the slot, the Raiders have also allowed 9 scores inside.
- While Washington has been feast or famine this year, he is out there a lot. Among WR’s he was second on the team in snaps and routes run.
TIGHT ENDS
“Dr.” Brenton Strange vs LV
- Coming off of a 12-target, 11-rec performance, this one is a no brainer. The Jags seem obsessed with throwing to TE’s and the Raiders give up the 4th most fppg to the position group.
- Keep an eye on his injury status though as Strange is working through a shoulder injury.
DEEP SLEEPER: Chig Okonkwo vs IND
- I’m not 100% sure what to make of Chig’s 10-target game last week. That was literally a career high for him after being rarely used for much of the season. Could there be a small shift in offensive identity with Levis being benched?
- The matchup is nice too as the Colts have given up the 5th most fppg to TE this year.
James Koh is the owner of Sleeper King, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on YouTube, Threads, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.